Watch carefully and listen for the discussion about sense and purpose, particularly as the speakers share about the stakeholder landscape and getting buy in.

You are about to explore the process of creating and using scenarios and scenario thinking. Before you do stop for a moment and think about all the ‘moving parts’ in the discussion between Major General Porter and Dr Peloso. Scenerio thinking helps you to make sense of the many moving parts of the Army. Watch the video again if you need to revisit those key points.

Scenarios, scenario planning and scenario thinking are fundamental strategy, planning and learning tools in the Australian Army. You would all have experienced these in various ways. Some of you might have developed scenarios. Others of you will have used this when you are instructing and training others. We are sure that most if not all of you will have experienced scenarios in some ways in your time in the Army.

The Cove(opens in a new tab) is a great place to search to explore the development, use and outcomes of scenario applications. Just use the search term <scenario>, and you will see many examples of the use and development of scenarios that are specific to the Army. You might also have participated in some of those you read about.

Here we want you to think more about the purpose and application of scenarios, particularly as you are working on your change opportunity.

Before you continue here are two tasks for you.

Be thinking about how scenario thinking can help you to be open to new ideas. How might you apply scenario thinking to situations where the current solutions no longer seem to be working as well? Here are some tips that will set you on your way.

Many organisations use scenario planning as a risk management approach. It requires you to at least think about ‘what is the worst thing that could happen’. It is a great technique when safety is key for example, and organisations that need a strong safely culture tend to use this approach for safety workshops and training.

Scenarios are a free flowing, brainstorming way of exploring a situation where there are multiple possibilities. It works very well in complex situations and when there are several possibilities. They help you to work your way through those situations and help you to make good decisions.

People often talk about scenarios as planning tools for future possibilities²….

… and thinking tools!³

Now the next step is to start using scenario planning and thinking. We will leave it to you to decide on the terminology you want to use: either way you will be thinking!

The ‘thinking’ elements encourage us to explore new possibilities and options. This thinking tends to work because we set up the process as an act of exploring and building multiple, flexible and shifting versions of both inputs and outcomes. The scenarios’ ‘anchors’, or inputs, can ideally be easily changed.

The easiest way to think about the idea of scenarios and multiple, flexible and shifting inputs and outcomes is to imagine a Rubik Cube. A simple ‘spin’ of an axis, and the inputs to a surface change, and the overall ‘look’, the outputs, of the Cube change. In fact, the analogy of a Rubik Cube is a good one for when you are facing a complex situation with many unknowns.

Here is a hint: you might be able to apply some ‘scenario thinking’ when you are considering the final question in your upcoming @Work activity!

Here is a quick overview of how they work. Remember that scenarios are usually about the future.

These are the basics!

So, what do we do when we have a decision to make and we want to understand the possible dynamics and the consequences?

Below, we have outlined a simple imaginary situation for you to work through which might be useful for you to get a sense of how scenario thinking works.

The situation: Imagine you have developed your Big Idea and you need to understand what the appetite is for your change and you need to make some decisions about what to do and also understand the consequences.     (By the way, you know your idea is amazing and you realise it is going to be of value to your team and the Army!)

When you do some asking around you find out that there are some stakeholders who are completely on board (positive) and you also have a group that is against your idea (negative). You have to decide how you are going to launch your Big Idea!

You can then plot out the variables to get an idea of the best approach.

On the vertical axis (the “y” axis) you note the stakeholders as positive (+) or negative (-).

On the horizontal axis (the “x” axis) you note your two launch options, Go Small or Go Big!

So now the variables are set up. You have some clues about what stakeholders are thinking and you want to record that thinking.  This can be done using the plotting tool below.

As you progress in this imaginary scenario, you then ask around to figure out what the overall story is that ‘fits’ with each of the four quadrants. You realise that there are roughly four groups. Some are likely to quietly support you, others are pushing you on, some just don’t know or don’t care, and one group would like to run you out of town, or out of the barracks!

You can give a label to each of those scenario stories. You can then plot these out into the scenario quadrants and do some more work on this. At least you know what you might be dealing with and from whom.

And now you can start making some tentative decisions and plot out the ‘how’ of your actions. You can see that for each of the scenarios you have a possible launch strategy and you can then plan and explore some more. You could ask key stakeholders their opinions of the four approaches and you can begin to build your battle crew! You are also pretty much aware of the sorts of reactions you might receive. Of course, your Big Idea was so amazing that over time you and your team are heroes!

The situation you have just worked through is a very simple one. But its value lies in giving you the basics of how you might go about using the scenario method.

1. Peloso, A. Why Scenario Thinking and Implausibility are Essential for Organisational Transformation. Peloso, A. QUT. https://blogs.qut.edu.au/qutex/2020/03/03/why-scenario-thinking-and-implausibility-are-essential-for-organisational-transformation/
2. Schoemaker, P. J. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan management review, 36(2), 25-50.
3. Wright, G., & Cairns, G. (2011). Scenario thinking: Practical approaches to the future. Springer.