19 The Art of Good Thinking: Scenarios and Scenario Thinking
Scenario Thinking and Analysis [Note – the templates and images are not added here as yet]
Short Version
Scenarios and Scenario Thinking
When we considering strategically managed projects, we also need some tools that help us to open our minds to other possibilities and options. Scenarios, scenario planning and scenario thinking are fundamental strategy, planning and learning tools in the Australian Army. You would all have experienced these in various ways. Some of you might have developed scenarios. Others of you will have used this when you are instructing and training others., And we are sure that most if not all of you will have experienced scenarios in some ways in your time in the Army.
The Cove is a great place to search to explore the development, use and outcomes of scenario applications. Just use the search term <scenario>, and you will see many examples of the use and development of scenarios that are specific to your organisation. You might also have participated in some of those you read about.
Here we want you to think more about the purpose and application of scenarios, particularly as you apply the processes to teams, people and projects.
Here is a short reading that introduces you to the concept of scenario thinking in more detail, and also highlights the ideas of requisite variety and implausibility.
Why Scenario Thinking and Implausibility are Essential for Organisational Transformation1
We encourage you, and your teams, to be open to ‘opening up possibilities’ in the right circumstances, We encourage you and your teams to explore the ‘implausible’ when it is safe to do so, and particularly when you are looking for new ways of doing things. It is also very useful when the team is functioning at its best, and when you can apply techniques such as ‘move, follow, oppose, bystand’.
How can scenario thinking help you to be open to new ideas? How might you encourage yourself and your teams to apply scenario thinking to situations where the currents solutions no longer seem to be working as well? Here are some tips that will help you.
And a word of caution. Given that you work in an HRO, you want to consider the implausibility rule in a considered and mindful manner. There are many activities and techniques in this unit that will guide you, including the concept of error-friendly learning, and the small wins process.
Many organisations use scenario planning as a risk management approach. It can allow planning for poor outcomes as well as better future outcomes. It requires you to at least think about ‘what is the worst thing that could happen’. It is a great technique when safety is key for example, and organisations that need a strong safely culture tend to use this approach for safety workshops and training.
Now the next step is to start using scenario thinking, The ‘thinking’ elements encourages us to think more about new possibilities and options. It also helps us to also accept the possibilities that the outcomes could potentially be much worse that we might anticipate, and also much better than we might anticipate. This is the step of ‘implausibly’ – what is highly unlikely to happen, but might be either catastrophic, or way beyond expectations. This thinking tends to work because we set up the process as an act of exploring and building multiple, flexible and shifting versions of both inputs and outcomes. The scenarios’ ‘anchors’, or inputs, can ideally be easily changed,
The easiest way to think about the idea of scenarios and multiple, flexible and shifting inputs and outcomes. Is to imagine a Rubik Cube. A simple ‘spin’ of an axis, and the inputs to a surface change, and the overall ‘look’, the outputs, of the Cube change. In fact the analogy of a Rubik Cube is a good one for when you are facing a complex situation with many unknowns.
Here is a hint: you might be able to apply some ‘scenario thinking’ when you are considering the final question in your upcoming @Work activity!
References
- Peloso, A. Why Scenario Thinking and Implausibility are Essential for Organisational Transformation. Peloso, A. QUT. https://blogs.qut.edu.au/qutex/2020/03/03/why-scenario-thinking-and-implausibility-are-essential-for-organisational-transformation/
Long version
Scenario planning is a free flowing, brainstorming way of thinking about a situation where there are multiple possibilities. It works very well in complex situation. It is also a very good tool to use when you know that you are faced with the need to know what others might be planning or when there are several possibilities and you need to be prepared for many options.
It is also very useful when you are working on your reasoning and logic and to help you in your good thinking process.
When you know that there are multiple options and you need to be able to understand them, explain them to others, scenarios are great.
You can also use scenarios as a Magnetizers: remember back to Pr. Cialdini and Presuasion if you know that someone has an alternate view you can use your knowledge of the alternate view to mention that view.
With you carefully prepared comparison of your view based on your good reasoning, structure and framing, you can give the main points of the alternate view. You use cognitive language to tell the alternate side of the argument. Then using your understanding of the power of emotion and your WHY WHAT HOW principles you shift the focus to your argument. You keep your audience and your key stakeholders magnetised to your argument. You apply the Association mechanism by using powerful imagery and perhaps some mystery.
You are practising the art of good thinking!
When you create your scenario story, you focus on the key variables and you create alternative or contingencies that include unfavourable and favourable futures.
These are the general steps of scenario planning:
• explore the scenario context
• identify the driving forces in the environment: what really matters?
• decide on the key variables
• undertake a stakeholder analysis
• understand the impact on your stakeholders’ thinking and possible actions.
• build the scenarios.
Many see scenario planning as a ‘what if’ activity. It is also very useful as an analysis and strategy evaluation tool. Using multiple scenarios, you can test our potential outcomes.
Now it is time to practice building a scenario. Of course, there is a huge body of practice and literature about the whole art and science of scenario building, planning and thinking.
In the Art of Good Thinking we want you to use the process to enhance your reasoning and logic and to be able to build cohesive and well-structured arguments based on critical and creative thinking.
Scenario
You have been asked to assess the options for a new express way linking two outer suburbs of a large Australian city. The expressway will have eight lanes, four lanes each way. The two main variables are price and access. Access relates to whether or not some lanes will be for high occupancy vehicles only which have been designated as ‘restricted access’ lanes. You have been asked to consider two options for each variable. Here are the decision points for variable.
- Access. The express way will either have unrestricted access or have two lanes each way that are only for high occupancy vehicles, or it will have all lanes both ways with unrestricted access.
- Price. The options to consider are either that the express way is open access, or there will be variable toll based on the time of day.
Weekends will always be free regardless of the pricing or access decisions.
We have also created a short video to help with this exercise. [Hafi – insert video – it is called Creating Scenarios]
Here is a visual representation of the scenario options. This is the framework for your scenario.
Created for this exercise.
Once we have our variables that set the overall scene we have to start on the stories within the framework. We know that we will have four overall stories that form the foundation of our scenario.
Next, we might create an emotive name or title for each of the quadrants, or story cells, of our scenario template.
Now you would build you stories to provide richness for each of the decision quadrants. You would use your research from your General Steps process and anchored by the emotive name of each of the story cells.
After your extensive research you might have built a solid argument for each of the four story cells. However, you might also have decided that you would be recommending Option B, restricted access so that some lanes will only be for high occupancy vehicles, and there would be no toll.
Your audience members are spread over each of the four story cells.
Activity
You need to create four stories to communicate the nature of each of the options and then also prepare an argument to support each of the story cells.
Action 1. Create four stories, one for each of the cells. Perhaps use the attitude formation model, stakeholder tools and other insights from this unit so far to help you.
Keep the stories short. Spend 5 minutes creating each story. Use the same sequence and structure of each of the stories so that they are as similar in flow as possible. At this stage you don’t want your decision to revealed.
Action 2. Write a summary of each story. Prepare it as a statement that you can read out or have available for the stakeholders to read.
Action 3. Practice working your way through presenting each of the stories. Be really aware of the different nature and emotional elements of each of the stories and how the stakeholder group from each might feel. Walk in the shoes of each group.
Now create an overall pitch for your recommendation. Use one or more of the techniques you have studied in the unit to make your pitch a great example of the art of good thinking.
Scenario thinking
How can scenario thinking help you to be open to new ideas? How might you encourage yourself and your teams to apply scenario thinking to situations where the currents solutions no longer seem to be working as well? Here are some tips that will help you.
A word of caution. Given that you work in an HRO, you want to consider the implausibility rule in a considered and mindful manner. There are many activities and techniques in this unit that will guide you, including the concept of error-friendly learning, and the small wins process.
Many organisations use scenario planning as a risk management approach. It can allow planning for poor outcomes as well as better future outcomes. It requires you to at least think about ‘what is the worst thing that could happen’? It is a great technique when safety is key for example, and organisations that need a strong safely culture tend to use this approach for safety workshops and training.
Now the next step is to start using scenario thinking. The ‘thinking’ element encourages us to think more about new possibilities and options. It helps us to also accept the possibilities that the outcomes could potentially be much worse that we might anticipate or much better than we might anticipate. This is the step of ‘implausibly’ – what is highly unlikely to happen, but might be either catastrophic, or way beyond expectations. This thinking tends to work because we set up the process as an act of exploring and building multiple, flexible and shifting versions of both inputs and outcomes. The scenarios’ ‘anchors’, or inputs, can ideally be easily changed.
The easiest way to think about the idea of scenarios and multiple, flexible and shifting inputs and outcomes is to imagine a Rubik’s Cube. A simple ‘spin’ of an axis, and the inputs to a surface change, and the overall ‘look’, the outputs, of the Cube change. In fact, the analogy of a Rubik’s Cube is a good one for when you are facing a complex situation with many unknowns.
