23 PROBLEMS, OBJECTIVITY AND PREDICTION: The Cynefin Framework

PROBLEMS, OBJECTIVITY AND PREDICTION

Framing Problems and Decisions [images missing]

You have just spent some time engaging in a serious play activity. You worked with yourself to solve a problem that you wanted to overcome in your workplace.  [links to a previous chapter]

Let’s hope it was successful. At the least you now have a new technique to use when you need to focus on a specific issue.

We want you to dig more deeply into the nature of a problem. You as much as anyone know that problems are not created equal. David Snowden of The Cognitive Edge has spent many years developing the concept of The Cynefin Framework which is a problem and decision-framing approach. You may have seen this concept in some of your other units. This complexity- framing model is one of the key thinking models that we use at QUT. If you have used it already keep going here as each time you approach a new issue or problem, it is likely that you will learn something new.

Understanding you and the Army’s context and its operating environment is a highly complex task. Decisions must be made with less than perfect knowledge, and often including highly variables, especially with technical and battlefield dynamics disrupting long held assumptions. David Snowden proposes a decision framework for decision makers and those in the field.

To set started, watch the YouTube video. As you watch here are some things to keep in mind and things to look out for.

https://youtu.be/N7oz366X0-8   The Cynefin Framework We have also provided a transcript for you.

Snowden reminds is that when we are confronted with situations when we need to decide and act, we will interpret the situation and act according to our personal preferences for action.

Consider where in the decision framework you tend to operate. What kinds of problems are you usually faced with?

Note how you respond to each of the quadrants and think about how you see problems and potential solutions.

Listen carefully for the nuances about each space and be careful about the ‘cliff space’ between Simple and Chaotic. The template will help you with this.

Reflection

Page BreakConsider your observations and reactions in the context of your current, and perhaps, past situations of decisions making, actions and outcomes.

How does the framework add to your understanding of how you, your teams and the Army overall see and make decisions?

How might you use this complexity decision framework in your own work?

Think about your own view of the world. What is your default approach to issues and decision situations?

Think about how you might share with your immediate team your insights and preferences.
How might you deal with these in your work context? What impact will your preferences
and those of others, have on the outcomes?

To sum up, Snowden says The Cynefin Framework “gives us a very easy way of deciding how to work but it [also] gives us a divergent [way of thinking] – we sometimes call this requisite applicability. It basically says dependent on which space you’re in you should think differently, should analyze differently, rather the one-size-fits-all which has been a tradition of management theory”.ii

Here is a final word that might help you put this lesson in context and get us ready for the next lesson. The famous American General Stanly McChrystaliii discusses complicated and complex in detail. He represents the differences in this way:

Insert a version of McChrystal complexity: cite Page 57iv

He says that complexity occurs when the number of interactions before components increases dramatically. His wrap-up statement is that the world has become in many ways less predictable despite technology and data-gathering and mining advances.

Snowden, D. & Boone, M. (2007). A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review, 85(11), 68-76.

Snowden, D. [CognitiveEdge]. (2010, July, 11). The Cynefin Framework [Video file]. Retrieved from

Page Break

Lesson 13

Dealing with Facts and Objectivity

In an earlier lesson you read this statement by Nate Silver:

QUOTE: We love to predict things – and we aren’t very good at it.4 Page 13.

In this section we want to give you some insights about facts, objectivity and prediction and encourage you to think not only about yourself but about those around you.

You have spent some considerable thinking about thinking, about logic and reasoning, and how you investigate problems and challenges all to help you with your ability to engage in the art of good thinking.

You have more control over your knowledge of facts at hand, of objectivity and of your predictive capabilities. You know less about those around you in terms of these factors: what they know, how they approach objectivity and how they predict outcomes. In most cases, you can only speculate.

Here are a few details that can help you.

From an earlier lesson you would remember General McChrystal’s comment about complexity and prediction: ‘… the world has become in many ways less predictable.’1 This is a given and David Snowden helped you explore that earlier.

In complex roles it is essential to question what are facts and what is objectivity.

We say that to be objective is to see beyond our personal biases and prejudices and toward the truth of a problem. To do this and to help us become more objective we need processes to weigh up information.

Nate Silver has explored objectivity, facts and prediction in detail in his book The Signal and the Noise.2 For the Army, for your roles and for your thinking capabilities objectivity is essential. Silver sets out to get us to question objectivity and its role in prediction.

Silver says prediction is essential and flawed. Prediction is difficult because the world is becoming more complex. Prediction is also less than accurate because it is partly objective and partly subjective.

When we predict we need to think about the difference between correlation – variables that are related to an outcomes; versus causation – variables that cause or drive another variable or sets of variables. The difference is significant.

Take several minutes to work your way through those details. What is your overall view of these insights? Reflect on them in your own role and in how you go about your work.

Activity

Now bring to mind a typical routine of your day, preferably one that involves others. Picture your role and your actions.

Play an imaginary video of the routine in your head.

Now imagine that your thoughts are running ribbon style along the bottom of the video. Everyone can now read them.

Next imagine that suddenly everyone’s thoughts appear in the ribbon.

Let’s pause the video for a moment.

Next, imagine that you are now the team leader. Suddenly there is a major change to the routine, and it affects the safety of the team as well as the outcome of the routine.

It is your job to set the scene of what happens next. Everyone gets to play a role in the decision of what to do.

Action:

Go to your Reflective Journal and look for insights and reflections from this unit.

Explore a set of tools and processes that you could use to:

Bring your team to attention.

Help everyone to appreciate the need for a change of direction.

Provide a logic and structure that would help the team in its decision-making process.

Win ‘hearts and minds’ in the process.

Your job is to choose a way to keep the team focused on the task at hand.

The only evidence you have of how your team does its work and how it thinks is the video with the thought ribbons. And of course, the tools you have work with.

Choose the three tools and processes that will be of most help to you to make your logic and reasoning clear to the team and to provide a purpose for the change.

Deep down we want you to remember that everyone is running the ribbon tape in their heads, thinking about something and making predictions so they can make sense of what is happening.

Your job is to practice the art of good thinking!

HINT:   Quote: ‘We can never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view.’3

Wrap-up.

This activity is one that we would put in the serious play category. Take your time and have some fun with it. At the same time, it is important to continually play4

This activity helps to get you ready for your first @Work activity. You just finished an activity that is based partly on something that you know well and then an imagined change and situation.

In your @Work1 activity you will need to choose something that is much more closely related to your workplace and role.

Take a break so you are refreshed and ready for what comes next!