14 Dealing with Facts and Objectivity
Dealing with Facts and Objectivity Nate Silver
In an earlier lesson you read this statement by Nate Silver:
“We love to predict things – and we aren’t very good at it.”1
In this section we want to introduce you to the concepts of facts, objectivity and prediction.
You have spent some considerable time thinking about thinking, about logic and reasoning, and how you investigate problems and challenges all to help you with your ability to engage in the art of good thinking.
Here are a few details that can help you.
From an earlier lesson you would remember General McChrystal’s comment about complexity and prediction: ‘… the world has become in many ways less predictable.’2 This is a given and David Snowden helped you explore that earlier.
In complex roles it is essential to question what are facts and what is objectivity.
We say that to be objective is to see beyond our personal biases and prejudices and toward the truth of a problem. To do this and to help us become more objective we need processes to weigh up information.
Nate Silver has explored objectivity, facts and prediction in detail in his book The Signal and the Noise.3 For the Army, for your roles and for your thinking capabilities objectivity is essential. Silver sets out to get us to question objectivity and its role in prediction.
Silver says prediction is essential and flawed. Prediction is difficult because the world is becoming more complex. Prediction is also less than accurate because it is partly objective and partly subjective.
When we predict we need to think about the difference between correlation – variables that are related to an outcomes; versus causation – variables that cause or drive another variable or sets of variables. The difference is significant.
Let’s try and put this in practice with an activity.
The following activity has been developed to help you work through a situation in an objective way. You will need to lead your team through an imaginary situation where you are taking their views and feelings into consideration, whilst differentiating fact from fiction and taking elements about predicting into account.
Take several minutes to work your way through those details. What is your overall view of these insights? Reflect on them in your own role and in how you go about your work.
Activity
Bring to mind a typical routine of your day, preferably one that involves others. Picture your role and your actions.
Play an imaginary video of the routine in your head.
Now imagine that your thoughts are running ribbon style along the bottom of the video.
Let’s pause the video for a moment.
Next, imagine that you are now the team leader. Suddenly there is a major change to the routine, and it affects the safety of the team as well as the outcome of the routine.
Suddenly, your entire team’s thoughts appear in the ribbon.
It is your job to set the scene for what happens next. Everyone gets to play a role in the decision of what to do.
Action:
Refer to your Reflective Journal and look for insights and reflections from this unit.
Explore a set of tools and processes that you could use to help you through this situation, such as:
- Bringing your team to attention.
- Helping everyone appreciate the need for a change of direction.
- Providing a logic and structure that would help the team in its decision-making process.
- Winning ‘hearts and minds’ in the process.
Your job is to choose a way to keep the team focused on the task at hand.
The only evidence you have of how your team does its work and how it thinks is the video with the thought ribbons. And of course, the tools you have to work with.
Choose the three tools and processes that will be of most help to you to make your logic and reasoning clear to the team and to provide a purpose for the change.
Deep down we want you to remember that everyone is running the ribbon tape in their heads, thinking about something and making predictions so they can make sense of what is happening.
Your job is to practise the art of good thinking! (see the hint below)
We can never make perfectly objective predictions. They will always be tainted by our subjective point of view.
Nate Silver4
Wrap-up
This activity is one that we would put in the serious play category. Take your time and have some fun with it. At the same time, it is important to continually play.
References
- Silver, N. (2012). The signal and the noise: the art and science of prediction. Penguin UK. p.13.
- McChrystal, S., Tantum, C., Silverman, D., Fussel, C. (2015). Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World. Portfolio Penguin. Page 74.
- Silver, N. (2012). The signal and the noise: the art and science of prediction. Penguin UK.
- Silver, N. (2012). The signal and the noise: the art and science of prediction. Penguin UK. p.14.
