Module Five: System Thinking
TOPIC 5.3: What is Complexity Theory?
Describing the attributes of a complex system
Recognising that there may still be room for command and control styles in government policy-making, the non-linear nature of complexity might suggest it is less effective with wicked problems.
An understanding of complexity and its application to systems can be insightful for the public sector manager seeking solutions and is covered in this module 3.
The Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation at the University of Waterloo in Canada describes complex systems this way:[1]
“Complex systems are all around us. They are seen in the ways that migrating birds organize themselves into flocking formations and that ants communicate to successfully forage. They are seen in the ways in which humans form social networks, and in the patterns of communication, social capital, and reputation that emerge from these networks. They are seen in the emergent power-law or fractal structures of plants, snowflakes, landslides, and galaxies, as well as in similar structural patterns of wealth and income distribution, stock market fluctuations, population distributions between cities, and patterns of urban development. Complex systems are often referred to as “wholes that are more than the sum of their parts,” wholes whose behaviour cannot be understood without looking at the individual components and how they interact[…]
“[…]Complex behaviour arises from the interplay, in densely interconnected systems, between multiplicative causation and positive and negative feedbacks. A signature of such systems is radically disproportional causation (i.e., small causes do not always produce small effects) or what is often called “nonlinearity.” Nonlinear systems can undergo sudden flips between stable states or equilibria. A second signature is the “emergence” of structured macroscopic patterns that are the outcome of the independent microscopic interactions of the entities in the system. These macroscopic patterns — be they hurricanes in Earth’s atmosphere or boom-bust cycles in global financial markets — often have enormous causal power.
“Complex adaptive systems — predominantly living systems, including human social systems — exhibit all these features; but, in addition, they survive and reproduce within dynamic selection environments. To do so, they have sets of embedded rules that guide their action in response to their external environments. These rules evolve under selection pressure.
“The formal study of complex systems began in the mid-20th century in mathematics, physics, computer science, systems engineering (including cybernetics) and meteorology; more recently, ecology, social science and cognitive science have made important contributions. Researchers now apply the insights of complexity theory to the behaviour of systems as diverse as fresh-water lakes, mammalian immune systems, financial markets, social networks, the Internet, and the power grid.”
As a result of the properties of complex systems described above the ability to extract the same outcomes from using linear processes of problem solving and planning as expected within a simple system is not the same.
Three features of a complex system will be explored in more detail as they apply to the Australian public sector. One of the features of a complex system is the ‘fractal’, or embedded, repeated patterns of systems, and a study of this is important for the public sector.
15 min
Think of a complex project you are familiar with and see if you can identify the characteristics of a complex system in that project:
- Many parts
- “More than the sum of the parts”
- Fractal structures
- Densely interconnected systems
- Multiplicative causation
- Positive and negative feedback
- Disproportional causation / nonlinearity
- Emergent macroscopic patterns
- Dynamic environment
Embedded systems
One feature of a complex system is that they are comprised of fractals, or ‘systems of systems’. In healthy (or viable) organisations: There are subsets of organisations within it (like Russian dolls each perfect but smaller versions of the outer doll); and, each unit has the ability to respond to its environment, provide leadership, gain direction, implement, gather feedback, and reset. Stafford Beer (1992)[2], a pioneer of systems’ thinking (through understanding cybernetics), argues that organisations, which do not have subsets with all the systems intact, will have problems.
In the Australian political system, an example of ‘recursive systems,’ or embedded processes, is Federalism where Commonwealth, State and Local Government all provide ‘Government’ for the nation. Another example is where government outsources services to NGOs, which become the implementing agency at that level. Some of the problems in the provision of services may be attributed to unviable systems – that is, systems which do not reflect each other, are missing, or do not have the capacity to provide ‘requisite variety’ and meet the needs placed upon the organisation?
20 min
Jones, H. (2011). Taking responsibility for Complexity: When is a policy problem complex, why does it matter, and how can it be tackled? ODI Briefing Paper 68, August. London: ODI
This reading will assist you in your leadership role as change agent in complex policy arenas.
Consider the strategies proposed and be prepared to discuss in your workshop . These may be useful when considering some of the potential risks of reform implementation in your Assignment 1.
Emergent structures: Networks and clusters for the future
A final feature of complex systems discussed in this topic is the idea of emergent structures, which may explain the need for traditional models of the bureaucracy to alter.
Complex systems tend to have organising structures that are not linear. Because the actors are largely independent and voluntarily come together for mutually satisfying purposes, traditional command and control structures set in place to deal with it, are often inappropriate.
Emergent Order and Networks: Health Promotion Initiatives
In Australia, as in other countries, health is often seen as a wicked problem (think: public health, chronic diseases, obesity, preventive health, ageing and many other issues). Health and health-related challenges take up a large amount of government budgets, have knock-on effects into other policy areas and generate much public debate. Despite this, health services are typically delivered via traditional approaches and programs. Could a systems thinking approach deliver better outcomes? The Healthy Together Victoria program used systems thinking in health promotion and offers an interesting case study into what this approach to health might achieve (Joyce, et al, 2018).[3] It is worth noting there is a debate about how useful case studies are, due to issues over how far a given case study can be extrapolated from.
Increasingly, government will be required to respond to, and be capable of operating within, networked structures. To do so will require a different idea of governance and leadership, in this more organic model. Experience in setting up cooperative research centres and innovation networks, and business and industry clusters will increase government’s confidence in the efficacy of the approach.
Recommended
Reflection
10 min
Public sector reform: In light of what you now know about systems: How effective are ‘shared services’ agendas likely to be in the long term, to improve government ‘efficiency’ or reduce workforce in the public sector?
Yet another element of complex systems is mechanisms which enable the larger system to remain relatively intact in spite of disruptive patterns in some of the sub-systems. These are considered to be adaptive mechanisms and are discussed below.
Adaptive Mechanisms, Systems Failure and Leadership
50 min
Complex adaptive systems have adaptive mechanisms, which enable them to respond to their environment, and as a consequence, react and respond to intervention not as a machine would but as an organic organism would.
In the next section of our extended reading of the APS paper on ‘wicked problems’ it is argued that the usual reductive approach of government problem solving needs to adjust to enable the APS to become an adaptive organism through becoming flexible and innovative.
Also, in the following section of the Chapman reading, he presents the notion of complex adaptive systems and how this is relevant to the development of policy. Please note that although Chapman’s examples relate to public policy in the UK, most arguments can easily be translated in terms relevant to Australia.
Please read sections 4 and 5.
Reflection
30 min
Refer back to the ‘policy cycle’ introduced in Module 1 Topic 5.
- Did you think then of the implications of linear thinking as raised by Chapman.
- Did you notice in that reading that a systems’ approach was also possible?
- Is the situation similar in Australia (or in your workplace) to that described in the Chapman article? Where might it vary?
Thinking of an organisation as a complex adaptive system is a major departure from traditional mechanical thinking, which thinks of organisations as hierarchical machines. This is an opportunity to reflect on the role of the manager as a leader in this context.
- What is the role of the leader in a complex adaptive system?
- Reflect on the behaviour and attitude of successful (and less successful) leaders that you have known. Which behaviours and leadership attributes were more successful when dealing with complex problems?
Emergent Order
3 min
Watch this clip to stir your thinking on emergent order. What kinds of problems need top-down control? Where do we need to leave things to emergent order?
Deeper Learning
McBride, K., & Draheim, D. (2020). On Complex Adaptive Systems and Electronic Government: A Proposed Theoretical Approach for Electronic Government Studies. Electronic Journal of E-Government, 18(1).
Snowden, D. (2018). Complex Adaptive Systems – Dave Snowden – DDD Europe 2018. Domain-Driven Design Europe.
- Waterloo Institute for Complexity and Innovation. (2024). What are complex systems? https://uwaterloo.ca/complexity-innovation/about/what-are-complex-systems ↵
- Beer, S. (1992). Recursion zero: Metamanagement. Transactions of the Institute of Measurement and Control, 14(1), 51–56. ↵
- Joyce, A., Green, C., Carey, G., & Malbon, E. (2018). The ‘Practice Entrepreneur’ – An Australian case study of a systems thinking inspired health promotion initiative. Health Promotion International, 33(4), 589–599. ↵